The US State Department predicts longer green card waiting times for many immigrants. Charlie Oppenheim, chief of the department’s Visa Control and Reporting Division, recently shared his analysis of current trends and future prospects with respect to immigrant visa supply and demand.
EB1—Extraordinary ability; outstanding professors/researchers; multinational managers/executives
The employment-based first preference category is not expected to become currently available again for any country of birth. While people born in most countries are predicted to see movement of up to three months per month, Indian-born can anticipate little if any movement. India and China both have waiting times that are years longer than other countries.
EB2—Advanced degree; exceptional ability
EB2 is expected to remain currently available for all countries of birth, except mainland China and India, but that could change, as it did in the current fiscal year. The demand for Indian-born is so great that the predicted movement is only up to one week per month, while China is predicted to move up to two months per month.
EB3—Professionals; skilled workers; unskilled/other workers
The prediction for EB3 is similar to EB2, but with slow and irregular forward movement likely for China and the Philippines. India is predicted to show little to no movement until January 2020. The more limited supply of the “other workers” category makes it likely that it will not remain currently available for the entire fiscal year.
EB4—Religious workers; special immigrant juveniles
The prediction is for EB4 to remain currently available for most countries of birth. El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras are likely to see little if any movement because of the large demand in the special immigrant juvenile category. Mexico is predicted to see movement of up to four months.
The EB5 category is expected to remain currently available for most countries of birth; mainland China, Vietnam and India will continue to experience longer waiting periods. Mr. Oppenheim did not predict availability.
Note that the October 2019 Visa Bulletin’s EB5 Regional Center final action date is reported as unavailable because Congress and the administration have not yet extended that program. This program has always been temporary in nature and the government always has extended it, often after expiration. In contrast, traditional EB5 remains available.
Family-based preference categories
There are no limits on US citizens sponsoring their spouse, parents and unmarried children under age 21, so these are not reported in the Visa Bulletin.
For October, the F2A (family second preference) category for green card holders sponsoring their spouse and unmarried children under age 21 is reported as current across all countries of birth. Mr. Oppenheim predicted that demand will increase in late 2019 or early 2020, and the category can expect a Final Action Date by February 2020.
The Department of State’s monthly online Visa Bulletin reports on the current wait times for the US immigrant visas (green cards) that are subject to numerical limits. The date the government receives an immigrant visa petition is considered the priority date. The immigrant’s country of birth is another factor impacting how long it takes to immigrate, although a married couple immigrating together can use either spouse’s country of birth for the entire family.